The Comet That Wasn’t There….

By Brian P James

The last week of February 2003 saw an explosion of ‘news’, ‘speculation’ (ie fiction) and then near-hysteria, about a comet that was supposed to strike the Antarctic region of Earth on March 1.  Given that you’re reading this now, I guess it didn't happen... No surprise really since the comet wasn’t there - the comet in question is heading its way back to the Oort region.

This speculation all seemed to erupt from web news published by NASA and Space.com, of a rare meteor shower that would be seen in the Southern hemisphere, and seen best from Antarctica, on March 1^st.  This meteor shower was from the material of the tail of Comet Bradfield (1976-D1 Bradfield to be precise).  For some reason this perfectly normal news alert by NASA and Space.com (I get them every day by email) sparked all manner of speculation and conspiracy theory, to the point that this comet was due to collide with the earth.  This ‘news’ then exploded all round conspiracy/UFO/new age websites – in some cases complete with fake photos of what was termed ‘The Nostradamus Comet’ over the ice-fields of Antarctica.  The speculation got to the point where claims were made that NASA, the US Government and various astronomy websites were hiding information – as people had done web searches and couldn’t find Comet Bradfield!  To be brutally honest, seldom has a no-story/non-event generated so much drivel (polite description for this publication) by people determined to speculate and hype based on a total lack of fact (and yes, I dare say boost their web-hits!)  Why does the I-net community thrive on such material?

Some simple facts for those people who didn't want to look, or for whom a few facts just didn't suit:

·                                 Comet Bradfield 1976-D1 did exist. Had these people who “couldn’t find the comet” chosen to visit any number of astronomy websites - including the SETI Institute and Space.com - they would have seen that Australian comet-hunter George Bradfield has been a discoverer of comets for many decades, and has discovered 10s (if not 100s) of comets in his career as an amateur comet-hunter.

·                                 Comet Bradfield 1976-D1 passed close to the Earth - and yes, uncomfortably close in Solar System terms - in 1976, not 2003.  It was a small and feint object, not even visible to the naked eye at around 8^th magnitude – despite its closeness to the Earth at its closest approach.  Given the lack of communications back then, the comet wasn’t seen many people.  Comet Bradfield 1976-D1 will return to the inner Solar System again in around 2976 - it has an orbital period of around 1000 years!

·                                 Astronomers in the southern hemisphere (rather than the armchair new-ageists who have spouted so much drivel) were looking forward to what promised to be a spectacular meteor shower as the Earth passed through the debris trail of 1976-D1.  Cometary debris trails are the cause of all meteor showers encountered by the Earth on its orbit around the Sun.  The reason why this was to be a favourable encounter with Comet Bradfield’s debris was due to the angle of its orbit compared with Earth’s – not all objects orbit in the plane of the ecliptic (many if these idle web conspiracy theory speculators clearly have no concept of 3-dimensional space, let alone the 10 dimensions they spout more drivel about!)

·                                 This ‘surprise’ meteor shower was designated beforehand as the "Beta Tucanid" shower, as the radiant was known/predicted to be in the southern constellation of Tucana.  This shower was known and predicted to the point where the maximum ZHR would be at 21.54 GMT, and the shower would only last for around 30-60 minutes.  Sorry, this was hardly a 'surprise' meteor shower!

I don't make any effort to diminish the reality that rogue comets and asteroids - known as NEOs (Near Earth Objects) - do present a very real threat should one ever strike the Earth.  Such and object may have been the cause of the Tunguska explosion in 1908 (although that fails to account of its claimed trajectory variations near ground).  Such an impact is widely accepted to be the likely cause for the destruction of the dinosaurs – and an object less than 10km across could to the same for humankind.  Movies such as Deep Impact and Armageddon were 'guilty' of 'Hollywood license' in how they portrayed such events, but they were depicting real threats.  If you want to read more on NEOs and the efforts to limit their threat to Earth, then visit www.spaceguarduk.com